Jinxuan Ma & Wanlin Guo

Climate Dynamics   ，2025，63，141

Abstract: Based on dynamic climatology and meteorological observation data from 1900 to 2000, a water vapor dynamics radiative convection model is established to project the impact of water vapor dynamics on global average temperature under the warming trend. By combining with the water vapor perturbation equation and the cloud cover projection by machine learning, the coupling between the water vapor and temperature, the perturbation of humidity and the parameterization of cloud cover can be described and analyzed in detail. Validation against historical data from seven meteorological agencies show that this coupling model can make efficient projection of the global average surface temperature and specific humidity from 2000 to 2020. The forecast earth surface temperature from 2020 to 2050 by the model will increase year by year and fluctuates randomly within a temperature interval. Comparing the projection results of this model with those of the dry atmosphere model, it can be concluded that the dynamics and coupling of water vapor can moderate the warming trend on the surface of the Earth. Comparing with the projection of decoupled model with fixed specific humidity, the positive feedback effect of water vapor can increase the warming trend of the atmosphere by at least 6%. Therefore, the coupling of water vapor and global average temperature change is an important component of climate change.

Link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-025-07638-3